Wednesday, August 24, 2016

SPX vs Sunspots | 10.7 cm Flux | Ap Index

Gold vs COT

Source: Fibbo SR (Aug 22, 2016)

Crude Oil and the 34 Year Commodity Cycle | Tony Caldaro

Tony Caldaro (Aug 23, 2016) - Over the years we have written many times about the 34-year commodity cycle. Generally commodities rise as a group in a 13-year bull market, which is followed by a 21-year bear market. Each specific commodity has its own particular cycle which generally fits within the broader 34-year commodity cycle.

A bullish phase of this cycle started about two decades ago in 1998, and ended in 2011. A bear market, lasting about 21-years, has been underway since then. Sorry gold bugs! During the bull market phase some commodities rise in five waves. During the bear market phase all commodities decline in three larger waves. Naturally, just like there are corrections in bull markets, there are rallies in bear markets. Commodities, in general, are currently in one of those bear market rallies.

When one looks at a Crude chart covering nearly 50-years, one can clearly see two periods of rising prices and two periods of declining to sideways prices. While these rising and declining periods may look sporadic, they are actually quite regular when one knows what to look for. As we will explain in the following chart. 

Tony Caldaro: "Expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade."

The two rising periods were actually five wave 10-year bull markets, i.e. 1970-1980 and 1998-2008. These two bull markets were separated by an 18-year bear market, i.e. 1980-1998. The rise during the bull markets were quite spectacular. Well over 1000% in such a short period of time. Price rises like these always lead to excess-capacity events. And these events are normally followed by nearly as spectacular declines. Which eventually cuts capacity until supply/demand reaches an equilibrium. We are in one of those equilibrium periods now.

With Crude 8-years into its bear market, and at least a decade away from starting a new bull market, we can already see a pattern unfolding which is relative to its previous bear market. To see this pattern one needs to review the larger waves first. During the last bear market Crude declined from 1980-1986, rallied to 1990, then declined from 1990-1998. A 6-year decline, then a 4-year rally, followed by an 8-year decline.

Since the current bear market just had an 8-year decline, 2008-2016, we should look into the last 8-year decline. Then the 8-year decline unfolded in three waves [1990]: 1994-1997-1998. Now the 8-year decline has also unfolded in three waves [2008]: 2009-2011-2016. Notice 1990: 4dn-3up-1dn, and 2008: 1dn-2up-5dn, nearly the exact reverse or mirror image. If we consider this a completed pattern, and we do, the next thing that should occur is a choppy 4-year bear market rally, i.e. 1986-1990 or 2016-2020. Therefore the $26 low should be the low for at least the next four years.

How far could Crude advance? During the last bear market all rallies, excluding the aberration from the Kuwait invasion, retraced 38.2%, 50.0%, or more of the previous larger decline. This suggests an upside target between $70 and $85 by the year 2020. Then, after that, a six-year decline into the final bear market low, which should be around the $26 area. In summary one should expect a price range between $25 and $85 over the next decade. Unless there is a supply-event, which could push the upper range higher.

See also Paweł Wiśniewski on Long-Term Commodity Cycles HERE

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

SPX vs Sun's Movement | 150 Degrees from Spring Equinox

In the late afternoon (EDT) of Aug 22 (Mon) the Sun had moved 150 solar degrees (= geocentric longitude = 155 CD) from the Spring Equinox.
More details on W.D. Gann's concepts of Natural Trading Days and Timing with Solar Degrees HERE + HERE.
Charted and calculated with
Timing Solution.

Saturday, August 20, 2016

Sunspots and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations | Maurice Cotterell

Maurice Cotterell (2001) - There appears to be a correlation between the rise and fall of civilizations with the rise and fall of radiation from the sun. The graph shows a long-term envelope of sunspot activity derived from the center graph of Carbon 14. More carbon 14 is absorbed in the growth rings of tress during the sunspot minima. Sunspot minima also correlates with mini-ice ages and a winter severity index based on a mean for Paris and London - for the period shown. The Maya disappeared during a sunspot minimum (see also HERE + HERE + HERE)

Presidential + Decennial + Annual Patterns | 2016 - 2019

See also HERE

Friday, August 19, 2016

DJIA: Bullish Into Q1-2 Next Year | Cyclic Vibrations

Ahmed Farghaly (Aug 19, 2016) - I am expecting a peak [in the DJIA] in the first-second quarter of next year [2017] and I believe it will be the peak of this century [...] Volatility will likely make a new historic high once the peak is realized as will be presented shortly. Let us first look at the DJIA from an Elliott wave perspective: 


I believe that we are terminating an impulsive advance from an Elliott wave perspective, this impulsive advance is the fifth wave of grandsupercycle degree [...] Another scary aspect of the chart above is the extended fifth wave that occurred from the lows in 1974 to where we stand today. R.N. Elliott warned about what usually occurs after a fifth wave extension since it is usually followed by a crash. Once we look at the projection lines we will notice such an outcome is highly likely based on our volatility forecast. The target for the correction after a fifth wave extension is the range of the second wave which brings us to the 1000-770 price range. Such a forecast for the Dow is certainly scary and I am not brave enough to make such a cataclysmic call which is why I will wait for the patterns to unfold to obtain more accurate price targets. It is important to know that the US stock market is likely to be the out-performer as indicated in one of my previous posts (The American S&P and German Dax ratio) in which I analyzed a ratio of the DJIA with the German DAX. If such a target is expected in terms of the DJIA one can only imagine what will occur to the European indices. I still prefer a German DAX short once the peak is in since one will make money from a higher EURO and a larger percentage drop. Let us now take a look at the shorter term wave count.

The shorter term wave count suggests that the DJIA is in its fifth wave of intermediate degree to terminate the primary degree rally from 2009 which will in itself terminate a cycle degree advance that started in 1974 which will itself terminate a supercycle degree advance that started in 1932 which will itself terminate a grand supercycle degree move that started in 1784. The cycles mentioned on many previous posts on this blog support that fact. I believe that such a large and historic top will end in weakness rather than strength. This is why I am preferring an ending diagonal scenario for the fifth wave of intermediate degree. I am certain that the correction that is about to unfold will be the largest correction in US history. This is a time to be cautious from equities and to try our best to avoid the calamity.

The first chart below presents an overlay of the 1920s bull market with the one seen since late 2011. Both bull markets occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance hence their high correlation (9 year cycle). The correlation is almost 80%! This projection line suggests that a peak is likely in the first quarter of next year. This conclusion is supported by a projection line of the 18 month cycle that started in 1971 which is presented below.

The correlation of the 18 month cycle of the early 70's bull market while gold was selling off is very high and similar to the bull market that started early this year (middle chart above). They both occurred under a similar cyclical circumstance and hence their 80%+ correlation. Both indicators are bullish going into the new year and suggests that the current 'worst' part of the year is likely to disappoint those that strictly follow the annual cycle as it has proven to do so already.

The third chart above shows my volatility projection as well as the projection line of the late 20's. The volatility indicator was obtained from two 9 year cycles of a similar cyclical circumstance to where we stand today. The volatility projection suggests that the crash is likely to be drastic going into the low that is expected in 2020 which is when peak volatility is expected.

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

SPX vs SoLunar Map | August 2016

Upcoming turn-days are:
Aug 18 (Thu), Aug 21 (Sun), Aug 25 (Thu), Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu).
also HERE

SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | August 2016

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) are:
Aug 17 (Wed), Aug 23 (Tue), Aug 29 (Mon), Sep 01 (Thu).
See also HERE

Trust | Key Contributor to Sustaining Well-Being Outcomes

Trust vs GDP per Capita - Enlarge
Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Max Roser (Aug 17, 2016) - Trust is a fundamental element of social capital – a key contributor to sustaining well-being outcomes, including economic development. In this entry we discuss available data on trust, as measured by attitudinal survey questions; that is, estimates from surveys asking about trusting attitudes.  

Who agrees with the statement "most people can be trusted"? It turns out the answer to this question varies hugely from country to country. In one extreme, in countries such as Norway, the Netherlands, China and Sweden, more than 60% of respondents think that people can be trusted. And in the other extreme, in countries such as Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador and Peru, less than 10% think that this is the case. 

[...] The Pew Research Center recently constructed a series of long-run estimates of trust in the government for the US, staring 1958. The following visualization uses their data, to plot the share of people who say they can trust the government in Washington always or most of the time. As it can be seen there are some clear patterns associated with political cycles, but in the long-run there is a negative trend. Today, trust in the government in the US is at historically low levels. The Pew Research Center has a dedicated website, with many interesting visualizations – including disaggregated trends by ethnicity and political affiliation. Further details and analysis available in the report Beyond Distrust: How Americans View their Government

In the US, the General Social Survey (GSS) has been gathering information about trust attitudes since 1972. To our knowledge, this is the longest available time-series on interpersonal trust estimates in the world. The following visualization uses this source to show the evolution of trust in the US. Specifically, this plot shows the share of respondents agreeing with the statement “most people can be trusted” in the surveys 1972-2014. As we can see, there are short-term fluctuations, but people in the US seem to trust each other less today than 40 years ago.

SPX vs Astrometric Indicator | August 2016

"Allahu Akbar, Europe is ours!" | The Reality on Europe's Coastlines

Weapon of Mass Migration and Jihad - Muslim Invasion of Europe (HERE + HERE)
Face of a dying Nation (Aug 15, 2016) - The media constantly portrays the situation in the Mediterranean as "poor Syrian women and children getting rescued from the Sea" and showers us with sob stories and manipulative images. The reality is much different. The illegal immigrants who arrive with human traffickers are mostly male, African and staunch Muslims. In this footage, taken from the Facebook page of this so-called refugee, you can see hundreds of young, strong Muslim African males holding up their fists and shouting "Allahu Akbar" as they deliberately strive towards Italian coast guard ships who patrol the area, hoping to get "rescued". They then receive a convenient shuttle service directly to Europe rather than being returned home.

Inigo Owen Jones | The Weather Prophet

 Inigo Owen Jones | See also HERE & HERE
The Australian long-range weather forecaster Inigo Owen Jones (1872-1954) is well written into 20th century folklore in the Australian bush. His forecasts, issued from 1925 to his death, were highly regarded by many Australian farmers, the general public and some of the media. His theory is based on the idea that the solar system is a vast electromagnetic body that is controlled by the magnetic fields of the planets. Jupiter is 1300 times larger than the Earth and has 12 moons, and the rotation of the vast orb takes ten times longer than Earth. This all combines to create a magnetic field much greater than that of the Earth. Inigo Jones discovered that when the major planets, e.g. Jupiter, moved towards the point of celestial longitude known as eighteen hours of right ascension, which points to the fixed star Vega, it caused sunspot minima. He also found that on each such occasion there was a more or less severe drought in eastern Australia. The working hypothesis from his observations is that the seasons are controlled by the magnetic fields of the four major planets and the Moon. There are longer droughts when there are more planets pointing towards Vega and floods when they are 180 degrees from Vega. Droughts cancel out floods if the planets are opposite each other at these points. Sunspot cycles are on average the same length as the cycle of Jupiter. Around the globe it is possible to show that greater sunspot activity causes more precipitation. Put simply, Inigo Jones believed that cyclical variations in the activity of the Sun - visible as sunspots - controlled the Earth’s climate, and that these variations were themselves largely determined by the orbits of Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. He considered five planetary-solar cycles of 35 years, 36 years, 59 years, 71 years and 84 years, and on looking back at the Australian Growing Season rainfall of 35, 36, 59, 71 and 84 years previously, he gained an appreciation of the expected rainfall for the forecast season or year in question.  

Australian Rainfall Cycles
If one wants to know what the weather would be like on 1 January next year, one would calculate the positions of the planets on that day and then look back through the record of weather observations to a time when the planetary positions were the same. If the locations of the planets matched, then so would the weather – more or less. Or perhaps less than more, for what seemed to set Jones apart from other weather prophets were the levels of complexity he added to this basic cyclical system. It is worth noting that to make predictions with this system one needs a very, very long, unbroken series of weather observations. Jones was fond of quoting the opinion of Queensland University’s professor of mathematics that a full test of his theory could not be made without 300 years of data.

Inigo Owen Jones (1938): Why I build the Crohamhurst Observatory (HERE)

Great Game 2.0 | Andrei Ilyich Fursov

Hit Syria – Target Russia Contain China
Andrei Ilyich Fursov (Sep 10, 2012) -  The Greater Middle East with its ongoing controlled chaos separates China from the necessary sources of oil and gas, while at the same time it is cutting the Chinese off from the Western European part of Eurasia. The control over gas and oil from the Middle East means first of all control of the US over Europe, especially Western Europe, which to a great extent contributes to the weakening of the Russian Federation and its position [...] This logic determines the North Atlantic elite’s drive toward the East across the Arab world: Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Now they have arrived in Syria. But on the Syrian spot the Atlanticists faced another global power, comparable to them economically and even militarily, but representing a completely different civilization. This is China, with its drive towards the West. China’s drive is a kind of crusade for resources. Pakistan is already under the influence of China. The Chinese have a long-standing relationship with the Afghan Taliban. Iran is also an ally, though specific. The south of Iraq is basically controlled by Shiite allies of Iran. Geo-strategically and even geo-economically China does not only push ahead to the coast of the Indian Ocean, but from this perspective also to the Atlantic (the Mediterranean coast of Syria). Objectively, the Western crusaders ran into a Chinese wall in Syria.

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Europe: War Mechanism Launched | Alexander Dugin

The US and Israel had orchestrated the 'Arab Spring' and the
Ukrainian Maidan i.e. they set Europe's immediate neighborhood on
fire. In 2014 the US launched their 'Weapon of Mass Migration' against
the EU, which is now disintegrating and on the brink of civil war herself.
The failed US-coup against Erdogan attempted to spark immediate civil war
and to direct another wave of Turkish and Kurdish migrants to Europe (HERE).
Alexander Dugin (Aug 01, 2016) - Over the past few days in Europe, and most importantly in France and Germany, one terrorist attack, massacre, explosion, suicide-bomber, shooting, and hostage-taking has followed another. On July 14th, a terrorist killed more than 80 people with a truck in Nice. On July 18th, an Afghan armed with an axe attacked passengers on a train in Bavaria. A week ago in Munich, an 18-year-old shooter opened fire at a McDonald’s and shopping mall, killing 9 and injuring 35 people, mainly teenagers of Turkish and Albanian origin. A 15-year-old accomplice of the Munich shooter planned an attack in Stuttgart. On July 24th, a refugee from Syria hacked a pregnant kebab waitress from Poland to death with a machete in Reutlingen. Almost simultaneously, an explosion occurred in the center of another Bavarian city, Ansbach, injuring 12 people. On July 26th, two terrorists of Arab origin who had sworn allegiance to ISIS attacked a church in Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray in Northern France and took hostages. They brutally murdered a priest. On July 27th in Malmö, Sweden, an unidentified person opened fire at a mall. On the same day, in the Bavarian town of Zirndorf, unknown persons detonated an explosive device near an office for migrant and refugee affairs.

What is happening to Europe? All of this was in fact quite predictable. Europe is inexorably nearing the brink of civil war. What is the essence of this war? In order to understand this, we should pay attention to the two major forces that are unleashing this war and becoming its main poles. On the one hand, there are the hordes of migrants from the Middle East and North Africa. On the other, there are European nationalists whose influence and determination is growing in strict proportion to the number of migrants. Hence the equation: the more migrants, the more nationalists, and the more that migrants resort to violence, the more hysterical and harsh the nationalists’ response will be.

During the past two years hundreds of victims were killed by Islamist
terror attacks in Europe (HERE).
And here is the most important point: in order to save Europe, or at least balance out the situation, every mentally competent European government should immediately halt immigration. After all, the situation is critical. But what we see are European leaders repeating for the umpteenth time “most migrants are good and different” and “more tolerance.” On July 28th, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that there will be no changes in immigration policy. George Soros and American politicians are acting as the ideologues of migration growth and for providing migrants with maximum freedom. They are pressuring Europe into becoming more tolerant and open. As Europe follows Washington and Soros, explosions and bloody massacres are becoming the daily norm for modern Europeans. 

Little by little, this is leading to a European Spring, i.e., a fully-fledged civil war. What goals do those who are stubbornly increasing the chances of terrorist danger and violence in Europe have? They can have only one: bringing Europe to an end, finally destroying it, and building the same bloody mess as in the Middle East on the European continent. Once again, we can see the favorite tool of American geopolitics which the US used to blow up the Arab world and has already destroyed several countries: Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Syria. This tool is none other than radical Islamic fundamentalism, Salafism, and Wahhabism, whose brand logo and PR signboard is the Islamic State, Daesh, which is banned in Russia. They make up the core of all extremist acts committed by migrants, or simply attribute these to themselves, which only strengthens their image. 

With friends like these, who needs enemies?
But the same forces also stand behind European nationalists, especially in their extremist, neo-Nazi, and xenophobic versions. Remember Breivik, a follower of whose recently tried to repeat the same murderous deeds in Munich. Such extreme neo-Nazis are oriented towards the US and Israel and are patronized by their intelligence services. Thus, Europe is being struck from two sides, but by one and the same player. Washington and Soros are stimulating immigration and overseeing extremists from ISIS with one hand, while with the other they are supporting the extreme right by pitting them against both migrants and another one of America’s enemies: Russians. This script was already played out in the example of Ukrainian Nazis from Right Sector, an organization banned in Russia just like Daesh.

Let’s pay attention to the geography of recent terrorist attacks: France, Germany, Germany, France, Germany, period. Why in these countries? Because after Brexit, Europe got the chance to somewhat deviate from America’s suffocating control and, as always, the two pillars of continental Europe, real Europe, remain France and Germany, who are least of all controlled by Anglo-Saxon domination. So now they get a black spot from Washington. As John Kerry loves to put it, the “mechanism has been launched.” This time, the mechanism is civil war in Europe which, in such a situation as now, is almost inevitable. The more migrants, the more terrorist attacks. Both are only increasing [...] Can this be stopped? Maybe it’s too late. The only chance for salvation is to immediately abandon the US and NATO at breakneck speed. Are you all ready? If not, tomorrow you’ll become Libya (see also HERE).