Showing posts with label Equinox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Equinox. Show all posts

Friday, June 16, 2023

Financial Markets & Seasonal Geomagnetic Field Variation | Hans Hannula

Any grade-school pupil can tell you when the seasons begin. In the northern hemisphere, generally, spring begins March 21, while summer begins June 21. Autumn begins September 23, and winter begins December 21. Actual dates may vary by one day in a particular year. So step one is simple.

The physical reason behind the seasonal cycle is the tilt of the Earth's axis. The 23.5-degree tilt of the Earth's axis causes more direct heating of the northern hemisphere in the summer, when the Earth tilts toward the sun. It causes less heating in the winter, when the Earth tilts away from the sun. This change in heating and cooling causes the seasonal weather patterns that we are familiar with.
 
Charged particles from the sun form a teardrop-shaped envelope about the globe called the magnetosphere.

Not so well known is the effect of the seasonal variation on the Earth's geomagnetic field. As the sun emits energy, charged particles flow outward, carried by the solar wind. As these particles sweep past Earth, they form a teardrop-shaped envelope around the globe called the magnetosphere.

There is a seasonal variation in two important parts of the magnetosphere. When the Earth tilts toward the sun in the summer, the charged particles can more directly flow into the north pole, where they affect the Earth's magnetic field. This effect is lessened when the Earth tilts away from the sun in the winter.

The second magnetic effect is on the magneto-tail, that part of the magnetosphere which streams away from the sunny side of the Earth. As the Earth tilts toward the sun, this tail "rides higher." As the Earth tilts away from the sun, the tail "rides lower." This affects how our moon, which moves in and out of the magnetosphere, interacts with the Earth's magnetic field.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (2023):
The Seasonal Distribution of Geomagnetic Disturbances.

So what does this have to do with stocks and commodities? Scientific evidence suggests that these fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field affect humans. Studies show that magnetic field changes are linked to blood PH changes, which in turn cause mood swings. Perhaps the psychological mood swings of traders are also subject to these magnetic field changes.

More obviously, the seasonal cycle could be expected to affect crop prices, such as those of wheat, corn and other commodities. Similarly, with most businesses running on a quarterly profit cycle, seasonal variations in the buying and selling of materials and equipment can be expected. Thus, on both a fundamental and technical basis, a trader can expect season price variations in stocks and commodities.


To perform step 2, mark the dates of the cycle on a chart with solid dots, and place them above or below the price as you estimate that price is high or low relative to what it was approximately one-fourth cycle earlier. Points do not necessarily have to alternate between high and low.

Now look for cycle "inversions." If two lows or highs occur in succession, the cycle has "inverted" between the points. A normal inversion point is halfway through the cycle.

Quoted from:
Hans Hannula (1991) - The Seasonal Cycle. In: Stocks & Commodities V. 9:11 (458-460).
 
 

Monday, March 19, 2018

Vernal Equinox | March 20 (Tue) Sun at 0° Declination and at 0° Longitude

Manly P. Hall (1928) - "As the zodiacal band marks the pathway of the Sun through the constellations, it results in the phenomena of the seasons. The ancient systems of measuring the year were based upon the Equinoxes and the Solstices. The year always began with the Vernal Equinox, celebrated March 21 [March 20, 2018 12:15 pm (EDT) = 0° declination and 0°Aries] with rejoicing to mark the moment when the Sun crossed the equator northward up the zodiacal arc. The Summer Solstice was celebrated when the Sun reached its most northerly position, and the day appointed was June 21. After that time the Sun began to descend toward the Equator, which it recrossed southbound at the Autumnal Equinox, September 21. The Sun reached its most southerly position at the Winter Solstice, December 21.

The seasonal variation of geomagnetic activity is related to the Earth's angle and position
towards the Sun: when the dipole is perpendicular to the solar wind flow, increase in geomagnetic
activity will occur around the equinoxes, and minima around the solstices (HERE)

Four of the signs of the zodiac have been permanently dedicated to the Equinoxes and the Solstices; and, while the signs no longer correspond with the ancient constellations to which they were assigned, and from which they secured their names, they are accepted by modern astronomers as a basis of calculation. The Vernal Equinox is therefore said to occur in the constellation of Aries (the Ram). It is fitting that of all beasts a Ram should be placed at the head of the heavenly flock forming the zodiacal band. Centuries before the Christian Era, the pagans revered this constellation. Godfrey Higgins states: "This constellation was called the 'Lamb of God.' He was also called the 'Savior,' and was said to save mankind from their sins. He was always honored with the appellation of 'Dominus' or 'Lord.' He was called the 'Lamb of God which taketh away the sins of the world.' The devotees addressing him in their litany, constantly repeated the words, 'O Lamb of God, that taketh away the sin of the world, have mercy upon us. Grant us Thy peace.'" Therefore, the Lamb of God is a title given to the Sun, who is said to be reborn every year in the Northern Hemisphere in the sign of the Ram, although, due to the existing discrepancy between the signs of the zodiac and the actual star groups, it actually rises in the sign of Pisces."


W.D. Gann knew the year actually begins on the Vernal Equinox (not on January 1st) and said this was a very important seasonal time also in the financial markets. He used geometrical divisions of the solar year (solar degrees of longitude and calendar days) to ascertain turning points in financial markets.

11°15' (= 360°/32 = 32nd harmonic), 22°30'
(= 360°/16), 45° (= 360°/8), 90° (= 360°/4), 135° (= 3 x 45°), 180° (= 360°/2), 225° (= 5
x 45° = 0.618 of the Solar Year), 270° (= 3 x 90°), and 315° (= 7 x 45°) Solar Degrees from the Vernal Equinox (= 0°Aries) are what he called Natural Trading Days. Though 15°, 22°30' and 45° also may coincide with changes in trend, Gann stressed the importance of the cardinal points (90°apart) and fractions of 8ths (11°15'). Gann also used multiples of 90°(squares) and 144° (= 12 x 12°), i.e. 90°, 180°, 270° etc. and 288°, 576°, 720°. Changes in market trends may also occur every 30°(= Sun moving into the next sign of the zodiac) or 11°15' (11-12 calendar days and multiples thereof) from any significant high or low in the marketSince the Sun moves at different speed, e.g. 90°not always equals exactly 90 calendar days. For exact calculations and projections an ephemeris is needed (e.g. HERE). The dates of the Vernal Equinox, Summer Solstice, Autumnal Equinox, and Winter Solstice slightly change over time (see HERE).
Because of the rotation of the Sun around the Earth, the spring equinox only falls
on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning (the Jewish day begins at sunset) every 28
years. When the equinox does fall on Tuesday or Wednesday, a very special prayer is
to be recited. It is called Birkat Hachama, the “Blessing of the Sun.”

Celestial mechanics are also the reason for the flip of correlation between astro-indicators (Bradley Index etc., but also ‘space weather’-data like sunspots, solar flux, geomagnetic indices) and financial markets. The inversion of polarity oftentimes occurs in a time-window of +/- 2 weeks around the equinoxes and solstices. When the Sun periodically experiences significant increase in sunspots and solar flare activity, flares release energy in many forms, including electromagnetic energy and energetic particles such as protons and electrons. When this energy reaches the Earth, it interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field. This generates an electric current that flows through the Earth’s surface and affects electric power, satellite communication, oil pipelines and of course human brains, mood and actions.Three mechanisms were proposed to explain the seasonal variation of geomagnetic activity: 

(1)   The Axial Hypothesis established the fact that the geomagnetic variation was associated with changes of the Earth heliographic latitude. This indicates that the Earth would be favourable connected to the solar wind from the active solar regions resulting in an increase in geomagnetic disturbance. 
(2)   The second is the Equinoctial Hypothesis. It focuses on the angle when the dipole is perpendicular to the solar wind flow, increase in geomagnetic activity will occur around the equinoxes, and minima around the solstices. 
(3)   A third approach assumes that the Interplanetary Magnetic Field lies in its typical parker spiral configuration on solar equatorial plane, the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field in the geocentric solar magnetospheric (GSM) coordinate system is increased when the angle between the z axis of GSM coordinate and the solar equatorial plane is minimum near the equinoxes. The southward component of interplanetary magnetic field is maximum in early April and October (HERE)

S&P 500 Index vs Delta Cycle | March 2018 Update

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Russell 2000 Index vs SoLunar Map │ Rosh Hashanah and Equinox

The Russell 2000 vs the major 118.12 Calendar Day SoLunar Cycle.

Rosh Hashanah begins at sunset of Wednesday, Sep 20 (New Moon), and ends at nightfall on Friday, Sep 22. The fall (autumnal) equinox is on Friday, Sep 22 at 10:48 am EDT (see also HERE). Greed reached an extreme level on Sep 19 (Tue), and the S&P500, the Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq generated Narrow Range Inside Day Patterns (ID/NR4 and ID/NR7 - HERE + HERE).

Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur
[evening of Friday , Sep 29] ? │ Jeff Hirsch
DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Up 7 of Last 8 Years
Day before Rosh Hashanah │ Jeff Hirsch

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Natural Trading Days for 2012

... derived from the Equation of Time & the Declination of the Sun

Astronomical cycles such as the Mercury Cycles, the cycle of the star Sirius, the Lunar Cycles, the Earth/Sun Cycles and the Equation of Time (EOT) can be used for timing potential turn dates in the stock, forex and commodities markets.

Earth in Perigee = Jan 05 
EOT @ minimum  = −14 min 15 sec  = 11 February 
SPRING EQUINOX = March 20
EOT @ zero = 15 April
EOT @ maximum = +03 min 41 sec = 14 May
EOT @ zero  = 13 June
 
SUMMER SOLSTICE = June 20
Earth in Apogee  Jul 05
EOT @ minimum = −06 min 30 sec = 26 July
EOT @ zero = 1 September
 
FALL EQUINOX = September 22
EOT @ maximum = +16 min 25 sec = 3 November 
WINTER SOLSTICE = December 21
EOT @ zero = 25 December